@InProceedings{CavalcantiSilvChou:2018:SoAmMo,
author = "Cavalcanti, Iracema F. A. and Silveira, Virginia Piccinini and
Chou, Sin Chan",
affiliation = "{} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and
{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "South America monsoon system and features simulated by the Eta
regional model",
year = "2018",
organization = "AGU Fall Meeting",
abstract = "The South America Monsoon System (SAMS) is the main driver of the
rainy season in large areas of South America. Its variability
affects several regions where droughts or floods have impacts in
sectors like agriculture, hydropower and the economy. Therefore,
prediction of extremes in SAMS is a highly important task. To
increase the confidence in model predictions, it is necessary to
verify, first, how is the model climate variability behavior. In
this study, climate simulations of Eta regional model are used to
analyze its ability of reproducing features of SAMS and extremes
in Southeastern Brazil. The Eta model was integrated at resolution
of 20 km and with lateral boundary conditions of HadGEM2-ES. The
analyses are performed in two periods, first: 1981-2005 and
second: 2016-2040. RCP 8.5 is the scenario of the projections. The
main mode of precipitation variability in the summer, obtained
from EOF1, is similar to the observations, showing the South
Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) feature and opposite sign to the
south and to northwest. The general configuration of the
difference between summer and winter, which shows the monsoon
areas, is also similar to the observations, with underestimation
in regions of Paraguay and northern Argentina. The wet and dry
extremes during summer show the dominant mode of variability
pattern, as in the observations. The projections show drier
conditions in the second period compared to the first one, in
large areas of Brazil, in all seasons, except in the winter (JJA).
The reduction of precipitation is great in the summer (DJF) and
spring (SON), mainly in central and southeast Brazil, likely
related to the SACZ changes. Precipitation changes are discussed
based on atmospheric circulation and humidity fluxes of both
periods.",
conference-location = "Washington, D. C.",
conference-year = "10-14 dec.",
language = "en",
targetfile = "cavalcanti_south2.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}